Tour 2005 -- From the gun…
A short individual time trial or long Prologue? I read where the maximum length of a prologue is 8kms so this year’s first stage is officially an individual time trial. The distance of 19kms will give a good look at the contenders vying for the win in this year’s Tour de France. No teasing us with small time gaps like previous years which left us guessing whether a few seconds was hesitation in wet corners or a dropped chain or poor warm up. I thought it best to make my predictions before it is too late and the Tour is underway. I will also work to cover the Americans more in depth when possible. It looks to be an exciting year with all of them having already had their own successes this season.
Saturday July 2nd: Look for the Americans to stack the top 15 riders with a German, Russian, and an Australian or two to spoil the party. Lance Armstrong, Jan Ullrich, and Alexander Vinokourov will have to show their cards as they can not afford to give up substantial time. We will see if Andreas Kloden can repeat on last year’s performance as well as Fabian Cancellera last year’s prologue winner and revelation.
Day’s surprise: David Zabriskie
Spoilers: Honchar, Rich
Overall: I have to go with Lance Armstrong. What has changed from last year? In my opinion he looked more at ease in this year’s Dauphine and flashback to last year a similar build up to the Tour. T-Mobile has committed to a full team around Jan Ullrich and to attacking the Discovery Team. They have danger men Vinokourov and Kloden who can not be allowed to go up the road. Roberto Heras and Joseba Beloki of Liberty Seguros could make going difficult for Armstrong in the mountains but they have given no hints of form this season. Ivan Basso- Giro and Tour? He did not start the Giro for training. This will be very difficult to touch again on peak form one month later. If he was not on peak form at the Giro then rearrange podium. It would be great to see another American on the podium. Levi Leipheimer is the most experienced and has the pre season to back up this possibility. He has finished 3rd in the Tour of Spain and rode well under the pressure of being the leader in the Dutch team Rabobank. He is consistent and improving year to year. Floyd Landis would be next inline. He has spent the season adjusting to his new role as a team leader and we all saw him on tv last year-He can go! Bobby Julich has had an incredible season winning Paris Nice and Criterium International. It is difficult though to play two roles and he seems to expect that to be as a key teammate to Ivan Basso. Chris Horner will be in his first Tour de France-somebody has to have a stellar first Tour.
Green Jersey: Australian showdown. Robbie McEwen-Stuart O’Grady-Baden Cooke
Spoiler: Tom Boonen
Polka dots: Up for grabs. Maybe a consolation prize for one of the top GC contenders -- hardly consolation though. I would expect it to be on someone like Backstedt or McGee in the early goings although McGee seems set to give the overall a run. Maybe an aggressive Frenchman like Voeckler, Brochard, or Chavanel.
Possible overall: David Moncoutie
Final Saturday note: Look for riders like Hincapie, McGee, Hushovd, Hunter, and Backstedt to turn fast times so they are in striking distance of the yellow jersey in early stages. It will be tough for the sprinters to trade stages and the yellow jersey with Stage One’s ITT.
Start your engines.
Kevin
Saturday July 2nd: Look for the Americans to stack the top 15 riders with a German, Russian, and an Australian or two to spoil the party. Lance Armstrong, Jan Ullrich, and Alexander Vinokourov will have to show their cards as they can not afford to give up substantial time. We will see if Andreas Kloden can repeat on last year’s performance as well as Fabian Cancellera last year’s prologue winner and revelation.
Day’s surprise: David Zabriskie
Spoilers: Honchar, Rich
Overall: I have to go with Lance Armstrong. What has changed from last year? In my opinion he looked more at ease in this year’s Dauphine and flashback to last year a similar build up to the Tour. T-Mobile has committed to a full team around Jan Ullrich and to attacking the Discovery Team. They have danger men Vinokourov and Kloden who can not be allowed to go up the road. Roberto Heras and Joseba Beloki of Liberty Seguros could make going difficult for Armstrong in the mountains but they have given no hints of form this season. Ivan Basso- Giro and Tour? He did not start the Giro for training. This will be very difficult to touch again on peak form one month later. If he was not on peak form at the Giro then rearrange podium. It would be great to see another American on the podium. Levi Leipheimer is the most experienced and has the pre season to back up this possibility. He has finished 3rd in the Tour of Spain and rode well under the pressure of being the leader in the Dutch team Rabobank. He is consistent and improving year to year. Floyd Landis would be next inline. He has spent the season adjusting to his new role as a team leader and we all saw him on tv last year-He can go! Bobby Julich has had an incredible season winning Paris Nice and Criterium International. It is difficult though to play two roles and he seems to expect that to be as a key teammate to Ivan Basso. Chris Horner will be in his first Tour de France-somebody has to have a stellar first Tour.
Green Jersey: Australian showdown. Robbie McEwen-Stuart O’Grady-Baden Cooke
Spoiler: Tom Boonen
Polka dots: Up for grabs. Maybe a consolation prize for one of the top GC contenders -- hardly consolation though. I would expect it to be on someone like Backstedt or McGee in the early goings although McGee seems set to give the overall a run. Maybe an aggressive Frenchman like Voeckler, Brochard, or Chavanel.
Possible overall: David Moncoutie
Final Saturday note: Look for riders like Hincapie, McGee, Hushovd, Hunter, and Backstedt to turn fast times so they are in striking distance of the yellow jersey in early stages. It will be tough for the sprinters to trade stages and the yellow jersey with Stage One’s ITT.
Start your engines.
Kevin
3 Comments:
Kevin,
Can you pick the ponies as well as you pick stage winners? If so, it's Vegas, baby!
Will CSC defend the yellow, and who's gonna win the 3rd race at Del Mar?
Thanks for the great insight!
Right on Kevin. I thought you were crazy throwing Zabriskie out there as your surprise pick. Damn, you picked it dude. So who's going to take tomorrow's stage? Do you think Lance let up so he wouldn't have to defend the jersey for the first few days.
Thanks for reading. I think CSC will defend if it doesn't mean breaking the team.
Lance wanted to win and send the message that he means business. It would be tough to calculate and then regret a chance to wear the yellow at any point of this year's race.
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